Why
Model
Reason # 1: Intelligent Citizen of the World
Reason # 2: Clearer Thinker
Reason # 3: Understand and Use Data
Reason # 4: Decide, Strategize, and Design
?The model
–Assumptions, results, applications
?Technical Details
–Measures, Proofs (Easy, Medium, Hard)
–Practice Problems
?Fertility
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Intelligent Citizen of the
World
Models Are Better Than We Are
Models Are Fertile【肥沃的;可繁殖的;丰富的;[物]能产生裂变物质的】
Models Make Us Humble
Many Model Thinkers Know Best
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Thinking
More Clearly
Name The Parts
Identify Relationships
Work Through Logic
Inductively Explore
Understand Class of Outcome
Equilibrium【平衡，均势;平静】
Cycle
Random
Complex
Identify Logical Boundaries
Communicate
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Using and Understanding
Data
Understand Patterns
Predict Point
Produce Bounds
Retrodict【追溯】
Predict Other
Inform Data Collection
Estimate【估计，预测;报价，预算书;评价，判断】 Hidden
Parameters
Calibrate【校准;使标准化;使合标准;测量（枪的）口径】
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Using Models to
Decide，Strategize，and Design
[Real Time]Decision
Aids
{In the Monty Hall
problem just described, should you stick with your original door or should you
switch
After Monty eliminates one door, your
chance of choosing the door with the prize remains one in three. The sum of
probabilities has to add up to one. So the chance of the prize being behind one
of the two doors you didn‘t initially select has to be two in three. Of those
two doors, one is open and reveals nothing, so the other has a two in three
chance of concealing the prize.}
Comparative Statics
Counterfactuals【反设事实】
Identify and Rank Levers
Experimental Design
Institutional
Design【制度性；体制；机构的】
Help Choose Among Policies and Institutions